Omdia: China’s PC shipment reached 42.1 million units in 2025, ahead of a projected 10% decline in 2026

LONDON, April 2, 2026: China’s PC market grew by 6% year-over-year (YoY) to 42.1 million units in 2025, but shipments are projected to decline by 10% in 2026 as subsidy policies adjust and component costs rise, according to the latest research from Omdia.

For the full year 2025, the market was supported by robust commercial demand and solid consumer performance in the first half of the year. Tablets outperformed other PC categories, with shipments rising 14% to 36.0 million units, backed by consumer subsidy support and expanded commercial deployment. However, the latest data shows that the market stabilized in Q4 2025 and remained flat YoY at 11.5 million units. During this quarter, desktop shipments (including desktop workstations) reached 4.0 million units, up 35% YoY, driven by strong demand from enterprises and government procurement. In contrast, notebook shipments (including mobile workstations) declined 13% to 7.5 million units as consumer demand softened despite continued support from government subsidies. The tablet market maintained strong momentum, with shipments increasing 10% to 9.1 million units.

Looking ahead, China’s PC and tablet markets face significant headwinds. Omdia forecasts PC shipments in China will decline to 37.9 million units in 2026. This decline will be more pronounced in the consumer segment, which is expected to contract 12% compared to 2025. Tablet shipments are also projected to fall 11% to 32 million units in 2026, following elevated performance in 2025.

“Subsidy policies that supported PC demand in 2025 are now being adjusted in 2026, with overall support levels narrowing to around 15%, compared with 30% last year,” said Emma Xu, Senior Analyst at Omdia. “Stricter implementation rules, such as provincial-level quotas and phased subsidy release, will limit demand concentration within a single quarter. At the same time, the scale of the 2025 subsidies had already resulted in a significant pull-forward of demand, making sustained growth in 2026 more challenging, especially against the backdrop of rising component costs and overall bill-of-materials inflation, particularly in memory. This combination of factors will make 2026 a particularly difficult year not just for vendors but for the broader PC ecosystem in China.”

Despite these near-term challenges, several positive signals are emerging:

• Accelerating on-device AI adoption: Deployments such as OpenClaw are stimulating demand, especially favoring higher-performance categories like workstations and vendors with strong portfolios, including Apple.
• Strengthening localization trends: Refresh demand is increasingly favoring domestic platforms and supply chains in specific enterprises and government purchasing, including HarmonyOS and UOS.
• Expanding policy support for AI ecosystem development: Both central and local governments are introducing initiatives to encourage AI adoption, including support for startups and individual entrepreneurs.

“Despite mixed signals on the demand side, the key challenge in 2026 will shift to the supply side. Vendors looking to capitalize on China’s opportunities will need to deliver competitive portfolios and additional value around AI utility while managing a delicate cost balance,” Xu concluded.